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Cheeky English Chick
"Conversation should be pleasant without scurrility, witty without affectation, free without indecency, learned without conceitedness, novel without falsehood."
Will you change your mind about Kerry?
Just a question...
Published on September 29, 2004 By
Sally jacobs
In
Politics
Well I've just seen on the news that Bush and Kerry go head to head in twenty four hours time. That this is Kerry's last chance to win over the American public. As I'm not American and don't really know the feeling over there, is there really a chance for him to change things? Will 90mins really do anything for him. From what I have seen on JU, people are very passionate about their politics, and I don't think tey will be that easily swayed. As I said though, I don't know as I'm not there. Would be interesting to find out though. So people of JU. Will the television head to head have that much effect on the way you vote?
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16
Politically Active
on Oct 03, 2004
I don't like either candidate. For lack of choice, I will go with Kerry. Bush will blow up our country if he gets the chance. For all who don't agree, go to http://www.johnkerryisadouchebagbutimvotingforhimanyway.com/
17
Don Bemont
on Oct 03, 2004
Just maybe you should go look at this link. This is a state by state poll that is updated daily. And before being asked, yes Ralph Nader is considered in the poll.
It may be updated daily, but very, very few polls have been conducted and released since the debate. In fact, as of this moment, the only one I know of is in New Jersey
Link
It's much too early to know the momentary, let alone the lasting effect of that debate.
18
drmiler
on Oct 03, 2004
Reply #17 By: Don Bemont - 10/3/2004 5:31:32 PM
Just maybe you should go look at this link. This is a state by state poll that is updated daily. And before being asked, yes Ralph Nader is considered in the poll.
It may be updated daily, but very, very few polls have been conducted and released since the debate. In fact, as of this moment, the only one I know of is in New Jersey Link It's much too early to know the momentary, let alone the lasting effect of that debate.
Before you talk, read and learn!
Link
The key words here being " the only one that *I* know of"!!!
19
sandy2
on Oct 03, 2004
Drmiller, read and weep. Did you go to the other, more reputable sites I gave you on the other article where you posted exactly the same link?
20
drmiler
on Oct 03, 2004
Reply #19 By: sandy2 - 10/3/2004 6:47:44 PM
Drmiller, read and weep. Did you go to the other, more reputable sites I gave you on the other article where you posted exactly the same link?
Read and weep? I think not! you OBVIOUSLY did not go and read the last link posted as to *where* they get their information. So I'll do it for you:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Polling Methodolgy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Many people have questions about polls and polling methodology. Here is a brief description of the process and how we handle the polls.
How are Polls Conducted?
Several organizations conduct state political polls, usually when commissioned to do so by their customers, which include local and national newspapers and television stations, as well as political consultants, and candidates. Different polling organizations use different methodologies and there is considerable controversy about which method is most accurate. To conduct a poll, the company first develops a questionnaire (together with the client). The phrasing of the questions is known to influence the results. Consider the following options:
If the election were held today, would you vote for George Bush or John Kerry?
If the election were held today, would you vote for John Kerry or George Bush?
If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush, Kerry, or Nader?
If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
The questions are then read to 500 to 1000 randomly chosen people called by telephone. Usually additional questions are added about age, gender, ethnicity, political affililation, education, income, and other factors to allow breakdowns by these categories. Often there are questions designed to determine if the person is likely to vote. These may include:
Are you currently registered to vote?
Did you vote in 2000?
Did you vote in 1996?
Do you believe that it is every citizen's duty to vote?
Do you think your vote matters?
Some polling companies give the results based on all adults they survey. Others include only registered voters. Yet others include only likely voters, using their proprietary formula for determining who is likely to vote based on questions like those above. Depending on exactly how the voting questions are phrased and which category of respondents is included in the poll, some systematic bias may be introduced. Some pollsters publish the results for both likely voters and all registered voters. Until Sept. 18, this site used likely voters if there was a choice (not often). Starting Sept. 18 the choice was made for registered voters if there was a choice on the grounds that there is increasing evidence the old formulas for screening likely voters will not work in 2004.
A recent development is the use of automated polls. With this technology, the company's computer dials telephone numbers at random and then plays a message asking whoever answers the demographic and political questions, to which they respond by pressing buttons on the telephone. The percentage of people who hang up quickly when this technique is much higher than when a human being conducts the poll. Nevertheless, Survey USA and Rasmussen rely heavily on this technique because it is fast and cheap, allowing them to charge less than their competitors in the polling business. Traditional polling companies criticize the methodology on the grounds that it does not adequately filter out teenagers too young to vote but definitely old enough to play games with the system. Chuck Todd, editor of the Hotline, a daily political tipsheet was once called by Survey USA and was effortlessly able to pass himself off as a 19-year old Republican Latina, something he could never have done with a human pollster. In response, the companies using automated polling, have numerous studies comparing their polls to traditional ones showing that they get the same results as their nonautomated competitors. But the issue of automated polling remains controversial.
Yet another factor is the day of the week the calls are made. Calls made Monday through Friday have a larger probability of getting a woman than a man, because there are more housewives than househusbands. Since women are generally more favorable to the Democrats than men are, this effect can introduce bias. Also, calls made Friday evening may miss younger voters, who may be out partying, and thus underweight them in the results. To counteract this effect, some polling companies call for an entire week, instead of the usual three days, but this approach results in polls that do not respond as quickly to events in the news. The most extreme example of this approach is Rasmussen, which polls people in the key battleground states every day and summarizes the results for the previous month at the start of each new month. More information about the polling processes is provided by this tutorial on polling written by the Gallup Poll.
Who Conducts Polls?
The websites of some of the major polling organizations are listed below. Note that most of them do not give much useful data for free. To get the numbers, you have to buy a subscription, in which case a wealth of data is provided. Also note that a few of the polling companies keep track of the state-by-state electoral vote, but all of them use only their own data. Since no polling company polls every state every week, using only one company's data means that their maps are often based on obsolete data. For this site, we base the maps on the results of four paid subscriptions, some of which, like www.pollingreport.com, themselves subscribe to multiple polling companies. Other sources, such as polls published by major media outlets are also used.
American Research Group
The Gallup Poll
Mason-Dixon
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Strategic Vision (GOP)
Survey USA
Zogby
Now I suppose your going to try and tell me that they are not a reputable source.
21
sandy2
on Oct 04, 2004
Yes, I am, because it weighs old polls and new polls equally. How many polls on that site were taken after the debate? The media did nationwide polls and have shown that Kerry is leading nationwide.
22
drmiler
on Oct 04, 2004
American Research Group
The Gallup Poll
Mason-Dixon
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Strategic Vision (GOP)
Survey USA
Zogby
What a crock, any other time the polls created by by these groups would be fine. You yourself have used a couple of them on occasion. But *now* because they report Bush ahead of Kerry thay are all
no good
I have *seen* you quote Gallup *and* Rasmussen polls before!
[
23
drmiler
on Oct 04, 2004
The media did nationwide polls and have shown that Kerry is leading nationwide.
IF they had done the poles they would be shown on the site as part and parcel of their content.
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